The biggest rout in commodities since the global recession may be a sign that the fastest U.S. inflation in three years is peaking.

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities entered a bear market last month after sliding more than 20 percent from a two-year high in April, on concern that slower growth will cut demand. A slump in the gauge from a 2008 record preceded a drop in inflation, while a 2009 rebound caused the consumer price index to climb. Raw materials fell 12 percent in September as the CPI rose 3.9 percent from the same month a year earlier, the most since 2008.

“There is a sense that headline inflation is receding,” said Stephen Stanley, the chief economist at Pierpont Securities LLC, a government-bond broker in Stamford, Connecticut. “Things have been a little more tame the last few months than they were earlier in the year, when you had this relentless push higher, in energy prices especially.”

That’s good news for shoppers, manufacturers and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, whose efforts to revive the economy have been criticized for risking faster inflation. Lower commodity costs, accounting for 40 percent of the CPI, would give Bernanke even more flexibility to shore up growth. The benchmark measure for prices will slow to 2.1 percent in 2012 from 3.1 percent this year, according to the median estimate of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Retail Costs

While the commodity gauge doubled from its 2009 low as shortages emerged in energy, metals and grain markets, the cost of regular gasoline fell to $3.451 a gallon on Oct. 23 from $3.985 in May, American Automobile Association data show. The fuel accounts for 4.9 percent of CPI. Three years ago, a plunge to $1.616 from $4.114 helped reverse the year-over-year inflation rate of 5.6 percent in July 2008 to a contraction of 2.1 percent in the same month a year later.

The pace of food-cost gains will slow to 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent next year, compared with 3 percent to 4 percent in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates. The commodities account for almost 14 percent of CPI.

The United Nations World Food Price Index has fallen 5.3 percent from a record in February as wheat plunged 30 percent from this year’s peak and corn and soybeans retreated. In August, Orrville, Ohio-based J.M. Smucker Co. lowered the price of Folgers coffee, the top-selling U.S. brand, as arabica-bean futures dropped as much as 24 percent from a peak in May. Cotton is 51 percent cheaper than at end-March, easing pressure on clothing manufacturers. Apparel accounts for 3.6 percent of CPI.

Slowing Inflation

Price growth will slow to 3.35 percent this quarter from 3.77 percent in the previous three months, according to the median of 68 economists’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. CPI will cool to 2 percent by the third quarter of next year, the estimates show.

The government’s measure includes 60 percent services such as rent and medical care and 40 percent commodities, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics defines as food, beverages, apparel and other non-durable goods, as well as durable goods including cars and appliances. The cost of those items is determined by raw materials and other expenditures, including labor.

“We’ve already seen some declines in gasoline prices and at least for some foodstuffs,” said Randy Kroszner, a former Fed governor and an economics professor at the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago. “That suggests that the outlook for inflation is relatively subdued.”

Investors’ Outlook

Investors are expecting a slower pace than they did in April, when the S&P GSCI gauge was at a 32-month high. The difference in yields on 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and 10-year bonds is 2.0309 percentage points, the average rate investors anticipate in CPI over the life of the securities, down from an almost five-year high of 2.6556 points on April 11.

Consumers also are changing their outlook. In a survey released by the University of Michigan on Oct. 14, they expected an inflation rate of 3.2 percent over the next 12 months. In the same survey in March, respondents forecast rates would reach 4.6 percent, the highest since August 2008.

While commodities are declining, they remain costly relative to past years, meaning inflation will stay near the highest levels since 2008. The median forecast of a 3.1 percent gain in the CPI this year compares with expectations for 1.5 percent in January, a Bloomberg survey of 75 economists shows.

Copper, Crude

Copper averaged $8,993 a metric ton in London in the third quarter, down for a second straight period. A typical U.S. home has 439 pounds (199 kilograms) of copper wire and plumbing, while a car has about 50 pounds. New and used vehicles account for 6.3 percent of the CPI. Shelter, a category that includes everything from rent to household insurance, makes up 32 percent.

Crude oil cost $89.54 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on average in the past quarter, 13 percent above its five-year trend. Heating oil was $2.9847 a gallon, 45 percent higher than a year earlier. Household energy makes up 4 percent of CPI. Crude oil climbed 3 percent to $94.02 a barrel today.

Cattle futures in Chicago reached a record $1.24475 a pound on Oct. 17, in part because corn-feed costs surged in the first half of 2011 and a drought led to depleted herds in Texas. Pork chops rose to a record $3.831 a pound at the end of September, and ground beef retailed at $2.868 a pound, also the highest ever, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Sirloin steak is 8.5 percent more expensive than a year earlier, and bacon advanced 5.4 percent.

Expensive Cheese

Dairy is still appreciating, with cheddar cheese in supermarkets costing the most in at least a quarter century, government data show. Milk futures rose 35 percent this year in Chicago, driving ice cream to $4.805 for a half-gallon, up 11 percent from a year earlier. Dairy accounts for 0.8 percent of CPI, and meat, fish and eggs are 1.8 percent.

While the drop in commodities may be good for consumers, it may curb the boom in U.S. agriculture. The government anticipates record farm income of $103.6 billion this year. North Dakota, the biggest wheat grower in 2010, has the nation’s lowest jobless rate, at 3.5 percent. The second-lowest, at 4.2 percent, is Nebraska, the biggest corn producer after Iowa and Illinois.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted on Oct. 4 that the slump will give way to a 20 percent gain in the next 12 months, led by energy and industrial metals. Barclays expects shortages in copper and tin next year. The International Energy Agency anticipates record demand for crude oil. Macquarie Group Ltd. forecasts deficits in corn, wheat and soybeans.

‘Here to Stay’

“Input-price inflation is here to stay, and that’s demand and supply driven,” said Pete Sorrentino, a senior fund manager at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati, which oversees $14.5 billion of assets.

Companies will be reluctant to cut prices because “they think any sell-off is short term in duration,” Sorrentino said. “They run up fast, and then they’re sticky on the downside.”

SuperValu Inc., the owner of Save-A-Lot grocery stores, has “taken a deliberate approach to passing on price increases as soon as practical,” Chief Financial Officer Sherry Smith said on an Oct. 19 conference call. The Eden Prairie, Minnesota-based company expects inflation of 3 percent to 4 percent this year, compared with 4.5 percent in the second quarter.

Weakening confidence and higher-than-average unemployment make people reluctant to pay more for some products. Bentonville, Arkansas-based Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s largest retailer, said Oct. 12 that it plans to lower prices as it cuts operating expenses as a percentage of sales over the next five years.

Tight Budgets

Shoppers have “concern about their income, and their family, and their budgets and how they’re going to get through,” Wal-Mart Chief Executive Officer Michael Duke said on a conference call Oct. 12. “That economic pressure our customers still feel today here in the U.S., and I can’t tell you that I’ve seen it get better.”

The data doesn’t support Bernanke’s critics, including Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry and Allan H. Meltzer, an economics professor at Carnegie Mellon University.

After the Fed purchased $2.3 trillion in housing and government debt during two rounds of so-called quantitative easing from December 2008 to June 2011, Perry, the governor of Texas, said in August that printing more money may be “treasonous.” Meltzer, who has written a two-volume history of the central bank, said in March that inflation was a growing threat and that the pace would quicken as soon as housing prices stop falling.

Employment Gains

According to estimates compiled by Bloomberg, economists anticipate the jobless rate falling to 8.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012, from 9.1 percent unemployment now, which is almost double the rate four years ago. U.S. growth will accelerate to 2 percent next year from 1.7 percent in 2011, the estimates show.

That may not mean faster inflation, which “appears to have moderated,” the Federal Open Market Committee said Sept. 21. Bernanke said in testimony to Congress on Oct. 4 that the higher prices haven’t become “ingrained” in the economy.

The central bank said in its Beige Book survey Oct. 19 that economic activity “continued to expand” last month while some areas of the country are reporting the pace of growth as “slight,” and companies see more doubt about the strength of the recovery. Prices paid by producers for raw materials were 6.9 percent higher in September than a year earlier, outpacing the gain in CPI and suggesting that some businesses may be reluctant to pass on higher costs.

Meat and Dairy

The USDA expects food inflation to retreat in all but four of 21 categories it monitors, including meat and dairy products. Futures traders anticipate gasoline dropping about 6.4 percent by the end of next year, and heating oil 4.9 percent. Motor fuel makes up 5.1 percent of CPI.

The Journal of Commerce Smoothed Price Index, which tracks the annual growth rate of 18 industrial materials from burlap to tallow, fell below zero in August, and reached minus 23.32 on Oct. 21, the lowest since June 2009. The last time it went from positive to negative was in August 2008, a month before the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

“Commodities come off most when the winds of recession are blowing pretty strong,” said Chris Rupkey, the chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. Inflation has “run up to the top because gasoline prices were so high this spring,” he said. “Now that gas peaked at around $4, there’s nowhere for headline CPI to go but down.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Whitney McFerron in Chicago at wmcferron1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Steve Stroth at sstroth@bloomberg.net

source:  bloomberg.com

ST. LOUIS (AP) — Ranchers and law enforcement officers say rustling has become a multimillion dollar problem in the U.S. as high beef prices have made cattle an attractive quick score for people struggling in the sluggish economy.There’s no clearinghouse that tracks thefts nationally. But the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association says some 4,500 cattle have been reported missing or stolen this year in Texas and Oklahoma alone.

Oklahoma rancher Ryan Payne says he never expected to be a theft victim because his pasture is so far off the beaten path, “you need a helicopter to see it.”

Then last month he found piles of entrails from two Black angus calves thieves slaughtered on site.

Cattle aren’t the only target. Thousands of lambs and hogs also have been stolen from farms.

source: read more>> kohm.org

The continuing stabilisation of the national beef supply base over the past year is confirmed by the latest British Cattle Movement Service (BCMS) data analysed by EBLEX, the industry body for beef and lamb levy-payers in England.

A total of just under 2.63 million calves were registered with BCMS between August 2010 and July 2011. This is around 20,000 head up on the previous year and over 65,000 more than 2008/9, bringing annual registrations almost back up to the level of 2007/8.

Of the calves registered in the past year, around 470,000 were pure-bred dairy heifers, leaving nearly 2.16 million calves available for the beef industry – a rise of over 46,000 (2%) on the low of just over 2.11 million recorded in 2008/9.

Dairy-sired calf numbers fell back slightly on the previous year, a sharp fall in male registrations more than cancelling out a further annual rise in dairy heifers which may be related to the increasing use of sexed semen. Almost certainly reflecting the extent to which higher feed prices have affected pure-bred bull beef viability, the relative figures suggest more than 100,000 dairy bull calves may have been lost to the beef industry last year.

Limousins remain by far the most widely used beef sire, continuing to record more than double the registrations of the next most popular breed. A continued decline in Charolais breeding (-3% on the year) coupled with a marked acceleration in the popularity of the Aberdeen Angus (+6%) puts these breeds neck and neck in second place. Simmentals, British Blues and Herefords also experienced noticeable year-on-year registration growth.

Among the less widely-used beef breeds, Salers, Montbeliardes, Luings, Beef Shorthorns, Lincoln Reds, Dexters and Longhorns all saw increases of more than 5% in their annual registrations, most on top of clear increases in previous years.

BCMS Birth Registrations in Great Britain – 2009/10 and 2010/11

BCMS Birth Registrations in Great Britain

see chart>>>

U.S. Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack says some of the nation’s largest retailers are already asking for the kinds of new food-safety tests for raw beef that the U.S.D.A. will require this coming spring. The U.S.D.A. is expanding the testing on beef to check for six more strains of e-coli.

“That’s a big deal and it’s going to make — obviously — ground beef safer,” Vilsack says. “It’s also expanded our testing procedures to include bench trim, which was not included before.” Bench trim is the fat and meat that’s trimmed from steaks and roasts. It’s generally added to ground beef, which is why the U.S.D.A. is now requiring it to be tested for e-coli, too.

More than 30,000-thousand Americans are likely to be sickened this year because they’ve eaten beef contaminated with e-coli and some — particularly the very young and the elderly — will die.

“It’s a significant number of people who are impacted, and we’ve been reducing those numbers,” Vilsack says. “We obviously have to continue doing that.” Republican presidential candidate Michele Bachmann recently visited a meat locker in Des Moines where both Bachmann and the owner of the establishment complained there were too many food safety tests required for beef.

Vilsack says the marketplace is demanding the new tests for raw meat. “What we recently announced was already being adopted by some of the major beef processing companies in the United States and some of the major retailers, so the market’s demanding this,” Vilsack says. “It’s not just the U.S.D.A. The market demands a lot of this — you take a look at Walmart, for example, they are now demanding a much higher threshold for food safety activities at their suppliers.”

Vilsack made his comments during taping of a program that will be broadcast November 4th on Iowa Public Television.

source: radioiowa.com

WOOSTER, Ohio – Oct. 17, 2011 – Certified Angus Beef LLC, for the fifth consecutive year, reported record sales for its signature brand of beef, with nine out of 12 months in fiscal 2011 hitting new heights. Efforts by the brand’s licensed partners led to sales totaling 807 million pounds, an increase of almost 4% over 2010’s previous record 777 million pounds.

The Certified Angus Beef ® brand’s sustained growth, particularly during a period of significant economic downturns and rising costs across all segments of the industry, shows its value to consumers and producers, said company president John Stika.

“The brand’s growth represents a wave of momentum that took more than 30 years to build,” said Stika. The success, he added, is a function of both demand and supply of the high-quality Angus beef.

Increased demand is not only proven by sales success, but also documented by new research from Kansas State University that shows since 2002, demand for the Certified Angus Beef ® brand has risen 56%, while demand for commodity Choice beef rose 20%.

Gains across all sectors
Stika noted the brand’s growth was balanced, with increases among steaks, end meats and ground beef. Sales were especially strong during the summer grilling season, and buoyed by licensed partners’ promotions of premium middle meat steaks. June, July and August each surpassed the 70 million pound mark.

The rebounding economy meant more customers were dining out at the brand’s nearly 8,000 licensed restaurants, leading to a 11% increase in foodservice division sales, totaling 250 million pounds. While new distribution was added in 2011, partners with more than two years of sales saw increases over 8%, indicating sustained growth in the sector.

Demand among the brand’s 5,900 licensed retailers remained strong, with the division posting sales of more than 395 million pounds – 49% of the total. Retail partners that featured the brand in circulars and implemented sales promotions found strong profit opportunities despite rising costs.

Licensed partners outside the United States also found growth opportunities with the brand, and netted record international sales of 90 million pounds – a 13% increase over last year. Canada and Mexico represented the strongest foreign markets.
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Demand continued to grow for high-quality convenience and fully-cooked items. Sales of branded value-added products also set a sales record of 18.5 million pounds. Popular new offerings included cooked, frozen sliced steak for fajitas, and meatloaf sliders.

Positive trends were also apparent on the supply side. Quality-minded ranchers continued to respond to meet the market’s needs, ramping up their efforts to reach the brand’s target. The result: a dominance of Angus genetics in the U.S. herd, an acceptance rate that at 24% is the highest in 24 years, and more than 3.5 million head of cattle meeting the brand’s high standards.

Nearly 16,000 businesses partner with the Certified Angus Beef ® brand in the United States and 42 other countries, generating an estimated $4 billion in consumer sales annually. Introduced in 1978, the Certified Angus Beef ® brand is a cut above USDA Prime, Choice and Select thanks to 10 strict quality standards. For more information, visit www.certifiedangusbeef.com or follow the brand on Facebook, Twitter or the blog at www.GoRare.com.

source:  Certified Angus Beef ® Brand

This article does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors and management of Nation’s Restaurant News.

Fears of global economic slowdown, along with disappointment over the lack of stimulus from the Federal Reserve and Congress, led to a broad-based sell-off in both equities and commodities in September. This is the third major sell-off this year. The last two were very short lived, but this one might have some legs. Since the beginning of September, corn futures have plunged from above $7.50 to below $6, soy oil from 58 cents to 49 cents and coffee from $2.90 to $2.23. But fundamentals remain relatively bullish for proteins, particularly livestock futures, which moved higher over the same period. One positive for consumers: The price average of regular gasoline has dropped to $3.41 per gallon, down 15 percent since peaking in May near $4 a gallon.

Beef — The Department of Agriculture reported Sept. 1 cattle feedlot inventories at 10.7 million head, up 5 percent from a year ago. One of the largest drought-based herd liquidations ever has taken a toll; ranchers will slaughter a half-million beef cows normally kept for breeding, sharply reducing producers’ ability to expand in future years. Meanwhile, world markets remain red hot. U.S. beef exports for January-July are up 27 percent from a year ago. A pending new trade bill with South Korea could give beef exports an additional boost. Cattle futures hit a record-high $123.10 per hundredweight Oct. 3, and forward contracts for 2012 are trading in the $123-$126 range, reflecting expectations for even higher beef and cattle prices through next year.

Coffee — Futures prices plummeted from a high of $2.90 per pound Sept. 1 to $2.23 Oct. 3 as investors liquidated positions in the face of dismal global economic forecasts. Next year’s 2012-2013 Brazilian crop is projected to be between 57 million and 60 million bags — a record high. Elsewhere, Mexico and most Central American countries expect production recoveries this year. Heavy buying at lower price levels by North American and European roasters gearing up for the winter consumption season could put a floor under prices.

Dairy — It’s been a steady march lower for dairy prices over the past two months. Block Cheddar cheese markets began August at $2.14 per pound and finished September at $1.72. Butter dropped from $2.09 to $1.76 in the month of September. On the production side, August cheese output was 1.2 percent above a year ago; butter output was up 4.8 percent. The USDA is forecasting milk production to be 1.5 percent higher in both 2011 and 2012. The recent drop in corn prices, if it holds, adds profitability and the potential for additional output, above current USDA projections, for 2012. Going forward, retail promotions for the fall holidays will likely create some movement in prices, but the general trends will be lackluster demand and weaker prices.

Grain — Over the past two months, the USDA twice cut its corn forecast and lowered corn yield from 157 bushels per acre to 148.1 bushels per acre. However, a late-September stocks report from the USDA’s statistics division reported corn inventories at a much-higher-than-expected 1.13 billion bushels, 23 percent above the USDA’s early-September estimate. Corn futures plummeted from $7.63 per bushel in late August to a low of $5.87 Oct. 4. But let’s not forget that China’s appetite for U.S. corn has put a floor under the market in two previous sell-offs this year. Despite efforts toward self-sufficiency, surging Chinese demand for meat and eggs is outpacing the ability to supply feed grains. The U.S. Grains Council estimated that China may need between 5 million and 10 million metric tons before the end of 2012 to replenish corn inventories.

The USDA also reported that wheat stocks were larger than expected at 2.15 billion bushels. With corn prices as high as they have been, analysts expected livestock producers to shift from feeding corn to feeding more wheat, but usage of wheat feed declined by 50 million bushels this summer. The drought in Texas and Oklahoma has abated a bit, but not nearly enough to save this year’s winter wheat crop. Chicago wheat futures have dropped from $7.62 per bushel in late August to a low of $6.04 Oct. 4. Kansas City, Mo., hard winter wheat futures dropped from $8.74 to $6.99 per bushel.

Pork — September’s USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report showed larger-than-expected numbers in almost every category. The June-August pig crop, at nearly 29.1 million head, is up 0.7 percent from a year ago, and a litter size of 10.03 pigs per litter was 2.2 percent larger than last year. While supplies will be a bit higher than expected, strong export sales have helped hog futures rebound from a bottom of $83.35 Sept. 6 to $93.67 Oct. 5. Traders are expecting increased exports to China and a pending trade agreement with South Korea to continue to support demand through 2012. Total exports through July are running 16.6 percent above a year ago. Exports to South Korea are up 129.4 percent. Exports to China are 248 percent above year-ago levels, but have fallen off substantially since April.

Poultry — Cold-storage chicken supplies fell 7 percent in August and are now slightly below year-ago levels, but still historically high. Chicken producers continue to struggle with high inventories, heavy bird weight, high feed costs and low chicken-parts prices. Egg sets were 8.2 percent below a year ago for the month of September, and chicks placed were 5.1 percent below a year ago, while weights averaged 2.7 percent above last year. Production in the third quarter was down 1 percent versus the third quarter of 2010, and the fourth quarter is forecast to be 3 percent lower than a year ago. Breast prices took another tumble and were near $1.20 per pound in early October, 30 cents below year-ago levels. USDA whole wings were also $1.20 and headed to the $1.30s in late January before the Super Bowl.

Soybean oil — Soy oil futures have dropped along with other commodities, and bearish global fundamentals could push prices even lower in the fourth quarter. Russia’s sunflower seed output will be record large this year. Palm oil output is currently at a seasonal peak, and it has been running at a significant discount to soy oil on world markets. While U.S. use of soy oil for biodiesel is increasing, a huge Canadian canola supply should offset any domestic soy oil headed to biodiesel. Soy oil futures, which were 58 cents as recently as Sept. 7, dropped to 49 cents by Oct. 5. Surging global consumption of fats and vegetable oils could still exceed output in 2011-2012, keeping stocks-to-usage ratios at multiyear lows and continuing to support prices in 2012.

John T. Barone is president of Market Vision Inc. in Fairfield, N.J., and can be reached for comment at jbarone@mktvsn.com.

source:   nrn.com

click image to zoom

A screenshot from the electronic grading system showing USDA Choice, Yield Grade 2 beef. The left is the natural color view of the cut; the right is the instrument enhanced view that details the amount of marbling, size, and fat thickness. Beef grading is a complex and detailed process, requiring graders to think and calculate quickly with great accuracy. Using technology to compliment and supplement the onsite human graders generates an efficient and more precise process.

Source: usda.com

source:  meattradenewsdaily.co.uk

THE ninth annual Santa Gertrudis sale to be held at the Dalrymple Saleyards, Charters Towers will be a great opportunity for Northern beef producers to become part of the rapidly growing demand for Santa bulls.

The resurgence in the Santa breed has been quite outstanding; a lot of confidence in the industry has been shown in the recent run of bull sales.

Northern cattlemen are well aware of the limiting factors forced upon them at times; the need to diversify was never more obvious than now.

Santa bulls offer them the weight gains and market versatility needed to meet the future demands.

Very few breeds can provide the market adaptability that a Santa-Brahman cross can.

The sales for the year have seen about 2000 bulls sold for an average of $5377; this is a great average for the commercial beef producer, indicating good value for money and that you can purchase good quality bulls at a genuine price.

The Santa breed also has the advantage of quality guarantee. Bulls are inspected by our classifiers and have to pass strict guidelines set down by a group of experienced cattlemen, covering fertility, structural correctness and breed type to name a few of the selection criteria.

This is not something new to the Santa breed it has been a practice adhered to for over 50 years, and this selection process is one of the many reasons the Santa breed is so sought- after in the beef industry.

source:  nqr.farmonline.com.au

Wagy beef is the stuff of legend. Melt-in-your-mouth texture, rich and flavourful, this beef is the best you can get.

Wagy refers to several breeds of cattle predisposed to producing meat with high amounts of marbling (fat). Originating from Japan, these cattle are now raised in several countries around the world, with Australia being the largest breed association outside of Japan.

Tom Blacklock of Benlock Farms is in his eighth year of sales of homegrown Angus beef. His farm is located near Grandora and is a place where cattle are raised the way nature intended: without hormones, antibiotics or animal products. Much of the Benlock herd dates back to an original Angus seedstock herd founded by the family in 1910.

Blacklock purchased a Wagy bull in 2008 after being approached by Dan Walker, head chef and owner of Weczeria Food & Wine, who told him there would be a market for the beef in the province.